EXPERTISE / TOBACCO
TOBACCO GROUP: Sales forecasts at regional level
One of the major tobacco groups in the world requested us to undertake an analysis to estimate the group's sales and those of the total market at a regional level.
The group had its own sales forecast for 2013 for Spain, however, to set regional goals, they needed the predictions to be based on the regional and provincial level.
The sum of the estimates by area and province had to coincide with the customer''s estimates for the whole of Spain.
We determined the main drivers that have an impact on tobacco sales.
Having defined the drivers, we estimated the econometric models at three levels:
- Spain (without the Canary Islands)
Verifying that the models were robust at each level
We also calculated trends models to include in the estimations the level of the series in the future.
Actions carried out:
The forecast by areas were calculated from the model of the corresponding area, the provincial econometric models and from the trends models by province.
On the other hand predictions by province were estimated from the econometric model and the trends model of the corresponding province.
The sum of the calculated forecasts at the regional level (area and province) had minimal deviation over the estimates of the tobacco group.
In order that the client could establish the goals at the regional level, he was provided with a simulator where, in addition, he had the option to reconfigure the provinces making up each of the areas.